Picture it: the year is 2024, and the music industry — that volatile, bloated, and bizarre theme park of streaming giants, labels, and grassroots indies — is bracing itself for a second Trump presidency with Elon Musk at his right-hand, as doge of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency). Musk, that mind behind Twitter’s rebrand into “X,” (still weird to say it out loud) is now Trump’s tech czar. Together, they’re poised to make waves, pushing for deregulation, fast-track innovation, and an emphasis on values that could redefine mainstream culture in America. For many in the creative industries, the prospect of a Trump-Musk partnership is about as far from nirvana (cue cymbal crash) as it gets.
If we’d predicted this in 2015, we’d have been laughed out of the room. But here we are.
In the spirit of technological innovation, we asked three AI sources what a Trump-Musk era might mean for music. The results? Bleak — to say the least.
But here’s the twist: even with the grim outlook, the resilience of true music lovers, fandoms, and the digital underground might just keep the soul of music from vanishing into the algorithmic abyss.
Here are eight predictions they all agreed on — a further polarised future where mainstream tastes could become more homogenous, controlled, and sanitised, yet where passionate fans and daring artists might find new ways to keep music alive in spite of it all.
- Deregulation and the Death of Fair Royalties
Deregulation could allow streaming platforms to push revenue-generating strategies even further, potentially diminishing artists’ income. With some notable exceptions, Musk has an allergy to regulation. Trump’s stance varies across sectors, but has long been that government oversight is best kept to a minimum. If they apply this to the music industry, copyright protections could wither, allowing streaming giants to take an even bigger chunk of whatever is left of the pie, and the tiny slivers that make it to artists reduced to crumbs. Musicians are already getting paid fractions of a cent per stream. In this scenario, they’re getting paid even less — if they’re paid at all. In a deregulated world, artists might even be forced to sacrifice more of their income, in order to get any decent playlist exposure. Spotify’s ‘Discovery Mode’ is already here.
2. It’s Not Censorship, it’s Free Speech
Building on that first prediction, there’s also the Musk-Trump approach to “free speech.” If Musk’s track record on Twitter (sorry, X) is any indicator, their definition of “free speech” might be a very specific kind of freedom. A world where ‘patriotic’ anthems and conservative-friendly tunes get the push on streaming services, while anything critical of mainstream ideology — say, a Rina Sawayama calling out social injustice or a Kae Tempest spitting political rage — starts quietly disappearing.
But of course, this won’t be censorship, exactly. The black box algorithms could just make it less visible. Unlike when national radio in pre-war Japan eliminated Western jazz or South Africa’s apartheid government banned anything even remotely rebellious, this would likely be simply a shift in what’s visible (and popular as a result). Music has always been the petulant kid of the arts, and just as the Reagan-era crystallised hip-hop culture, under Musk and Trump, it’s likely that the underground will again become the last place to hear voices that rock the boat. Unless The Right gets there first and slams the door behind it. See this piece from Guardian, 2021 on Right Wing’s takeover of protest music.
3. America First, Music Last: Immigration as a barrier to global talent
Trump’s well-known stance on immigration is likely to go into overdrive, and with Musk by his side, we’re talking about a more insular America in every cultural sense. Cross-cultural music — think Brazilian bossa nova meshing with American jazz, or Nigerian afrobeats electrifying pop — is at risk. Without visas and open borders, music starts sounding a lot more… restricted. More about flag waving and less about dancing on your own in the dark.
It’s not just about Coachella without Tampe Impala or Bad Bunny. It’s also about bands like Tinariwen unable to cross borders to share Tuareg rock with the world, or Latin trap artists selling out Miami clubs, or Thai punk bands playing Brooklyn dive bars. Under stricter immigration policies, we’re looking at an American soundscape that’s largely cut off from the very influences that have kept it fresh. If we shut out global voices, we lose the very cross-pollination that makes music interesting. The world feels a lot closer and more together through music – global pop stars shape the music landscape with their unique cross-cultural influences, making the mainstream more inclusive and expansive than ever (W Magazine).
4. AI – Gatekeepers of the bland and the safe
Unsurprisingly, there were mixed messages about AI, from AI. While Musk has shown a complicated relationship with AI — praising its potential but warning about its risks and “summoning the demon” he has not publicly advocated for AI to replace human creativity in music. But AI-generated music, like algorithms across platforms, is already transforming the industry. The fear of corporate control over creative fields isn’t unfounded. Artists like Thom Yorke, along with actor Julianne Moore, recently issued a public warning about AI’s threat to creative industries, raising the alarm on AI’s capacity to “hollow out” human artistry and reduce unique voices to safe, predictable trends. Alongside the potential deregulation of algorithms considered ‘safe’, AI ‘content creation’ might lead to big music biz concluding they no longer need to spend money scouting for fresh, human talent. Why bother? You don’t need a pulse to generate a catchy beat, just data.
While this might sound far-fetched now, what’s more plausible is an increased reliance on algorithms as tastemakers, edging out real artistry into the background. Avatar influencers are here already. Imagine those strange and beautiful collaborations — like Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan merging qawwali with Western rock or Talking Heads exploring African polyrhythms — but now filtered through an algorithm, iterating endlessly alongside Tik Tok clips of unreal “artists”, competing to predict the next viral trend. Anything “risky” doesn’t make the cut. Out goes the raw, unpredictable magic of artists crossing borders and pushing boundaries; in comes the safe, data-driven echo of whatever’s popular this week. This is a world where everything starts to sound the same, where AI-generated podcasts edge out radio shows, and genres like Ethiopian jazz-funk fusion, Japanese experimental noise, or the powerful poetry of Palestinian hip-hop quietly disappear. Swept away in favour of easily packaged “hits” that check all the algorithmic boxes.
5. Environmental Apathy and the End of International Touring
Touring is one of the last ways musicians can actually make a living, but it’s also an environmental nightmare. The carbon footprint of an international tour is huge, and fans and artists alike are starting to call for sustainability. With Trump’s (at best) ambivalence toward climate policy and Musk’s interests spread from electric cars to Mars, environmental prioritisation in touring might not rank highly under their administration. In a Musk-Trump world, sustainable touring could be deprioritised to the point that it’s no longer financially viable for most artists – or worse, a return to cheaper fossil fuels compared to renewables means that artists are caught in a choice between ethics and economics.
The likely result? International tours become the realm of only two types of artists: the multi-megastars with deep pockets (whose large tours have the biggest carbon footprint,) or those who simply don’t care about the impact. Some, like Coldplay, have started incorporating sustainable practices, powering shows with renewable energy, planting trees for each ticket sold, and using low-carbon equipment to cut emissions. But for most artists, these green initiatives are out of reach. For everyone else — fringe artists, independent bands, niche acts — it’s either stay local or go digital. See Rolling Stone’s coverage on green(ish) initiatives in live music.
6. ‘Digital Samizdat’: The Rise of the Underground Network
This is an odd one, but bear with us. If the mainstream shuts out experimental or dissenting voices, we could see a rise in “digital samizdat” — online communities where fans and artists bypass the usual platforms to share music that doesn’t fit the sanitised new normal. In the Soviet Union, samizdat kept banned ideas alive, passed hand-to-hand. In this case, it’s server-to-server. Picture Cuban rappers, Irish punk poets, Indigenous artists, all uploading their work to private Discords, sharing resistance anthems. Though a stretch, historical comparisons come to mind – like the Swingjugend of 1930s Germany, who defied Nazi control by gathering in secret to listen to forbidden jazz and swing. Tomorrow’s underground could gather in digital sanctuaries where no algorithm tells them what’s “worthy.”
7. Fandoms as the Last Guardians of Real Music
Here’s where things possibly start to look up. Maybe. In a world where algorithms control what we hear, the last line of defence might just be the fanbases themselves. Swifties, the BTS ARMY, and every hyper-loyal fanbase out there — these aren’t just fans; they’re activists, they’re promoters, and in a world where traditional structures are breaking down, they’re the ones who could keep the flame alive.
We’ve seen it already: Swifties took Ticketmaster to task over monopolistic practices, and the BTS ARMY raised funds for social justice causes. These fandoms don’t just listen passively; they take action. Imagine them as the new record labels, the new promoters, the new publishers. Imagine them banding together in private forums, encrypted channels, and decentralised platforms to keep their favourite artists going, no matter what the mainstream machine says. And if they could put aside the inter-fan beefs and toxic divides? Who knows what else they might achieve.
8. Direct-to-Fan Platforms are the ‘New Indie’
If not the fandoms, then it’s going to be about the fans. In a Trump-Musk world, where corporate control over streaming and shrinking royalties could sideline all but the biggest names, fans may be the ones to keep music alive and artists afloat. Platforms like Patreon, Discord and, to an extent, Bandcamp before its buy-out, have evolved beyond sidestepping middlemen; they’re now critical for survival. These direct-to-fan channels bypass the algorithm-driven streaming economy and offer artists a way to make a living without labels or corporate gatekeepers dictating their value.
For fans, supporting artists directly is a way to champion the music that speaks to them personally. For artists, it’s a serious lifeline — a chance to create freely and engage fans sustainably, avoiding short-lived, hit-driven, cookie-cutter demands of the mainstream. This direct support model isn’t a trend; it’s becoming the new industry, with fans and artists together reshaping what a music economy can look like.
Now what?
We said it was bleak. But predictions aren’t destiny kids, and AI makes mistakes (always remember to check important info). The current picture? It’s probably scarier, and you don’t need ChatGPT to tell you that the music industry is in an existential crisis. It’s sitting there, in denial, while its major organs are being removed for sale to the highest bidder in the name of “innovation”, by people who care more about profits than music.
Let’s be real. Artists still need to eat, and no fantasy world of Patreon or Kofi tips and Bandcamp Fridays will pay the rent. The influence of Trump and Musk could push mainstream culture deeper into corporate hands, and labels and algorithms might become even bigger gatekeepers. But that doesn’t mean every artist has to play along. And, no — direct-to-fan platforms aren’t the silver bullet. They’re not going to replace the reach or cash of a big label deal or the prime Spotify playlist slot. What they do give is something real: a direct line to fans who actually care.
But what’s the alternative? The major streaming platforms are staying right where they are (for now), and that ‘golden(?) age’ of rock stars, back when every band had its shot at stardom, isn’t coming back just because vinyl is trendy again. But these direct-to-fan models are giving marginal artists a foothold. A chance to make something that’s political, messy, raw, something that isn’t stripped down by AI just to fit the “Top 40” (whatever that means these days). They won’t make millions. They might not be household names. But they’ll stay alive and real. And in a world full of plastic playlists, that’s enough to keep the pulse going.
So, here’s to the fans who don’t just scroll by, who see music as more than background noise for a Peloton sprint or filler for the latest viral dance. Here’s to the artists who refuse to play it “safe” or stick to the “brand,” to those who speak out for change, for humanity, for the planet. Here’s to the voices of dissent, the ones that challenge, provoke, and keep us awake.
Support artists. Support them, because in the end, they’re the ones keeping music alive, with all of its vibrant and challenging ideas. And if the mainstream turns its back on them? So be it. We’ll be just fine without it.
How to help:
Supporting artists matters more now than ever. Buy music. Buy merch. Support, share or promote organisations that champion fair pay, mental health, equity and direct support for Black, Indigenous, LGBTQ+, and independent artists. Check these out for starters:
Union of Musicians and Allied Workers (UMAW) — Advocates for fair pay, ethical streaming practices, and workers’ rights across the music industry.
Music Workers Alliance (MWA) — Protects the rights of independent musicians, from fair compensation to healthcare access.
Musicians’ Union (UK) — Provides legal support, fair royalties advocacy, and live music protections for musicians in the UK.
Music Declares Emergency — Unites artists, fans, and music companies to support climate action and sustainable practices.
Help Musicians UK — Supports UK musicians with health care, crisis relief, and career guidance.
SoundExchange — Ensures musicians receive fair digital royalties from streaming platforms and digital radio.
Backline — Provides mental health and wellness resources tailored to the needs of musicians.
Black Music Action Coalition (BMAC) — Works toward racial equity in music, dismantling barriers for Black artists.
Indigenous Music Development Program (IMDP) — Provides mentorship, training, and performance support for Indigenous artists.
Black Lives in Music (BLIM) — Addresses racial inequality through mentorship, mental health support, and industry advocacy.
The Recording Academy’s MusiCares — Offers financial support and wellness programs for musicians in need.
Afropunk Army — Blends music and social action to support Black artists and create inclusive music spaces.
Pride Foundation — Provides scholarships and grants to LGBTQ+ artists, with initiatives aimed at addressing inequalities for LGBTQ+ musicians.
Queer Music Agency — Supports LGBTQ+ artists by connecting them with opportunities, booking events, and building a network of queer music talent.
